Gate Research recently released a report titled “Evaluating Sonic’s Potential to Recreate Fantom’s Peak via Data Modeling“. Using data modeling and historical comparisons, the report provides an in-depth analysis of Sonic’s public blockchain performance across key dimensions, including TVL (Total Value Locked), ecosystem development, and capital attraction capabilities, to evaluate whether Sonic can replicate Fantom’s peak success in 2022. The report integrates Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Logistic Regression, and Monte Carlo simulations to build a systematic evaluation framework and outlines key paths and potential challenges for Sonic’s future development.

Key Takeaways:

• Historical Comparison with Fantom’s Peak: At its peak in 2022, Fantom’s TVL reached $8 billion, ranking among the top five blockchains globally. Sonic, by contrast, achieved nearly $1 billion in TVL within just three months of its mainnet launch, with a market share exceeding 1%. Its growth rate is remarkable, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing emerging blockchains in terms of TVL.
• Ecosystem Status and User Activity: Currently, Sonic’s transaction count is approximately 51% of Fantom’s peak activity, and its DEX trading volume accounts for 16.9% of Fantom’s at its height. Sonic remains in an early stage of ecosystem development, with no fully formed native protocol ecosystem yet, contrasting with Fantom’s peak, where four native protocols accounted for 65% of its TVL.
• Capital Attraction and Innovation Models: Sonic employs a “Lombard + Ether.fi + Rings” triangular strategy to drive growth, helping its stablecoin market capitalization reach $500 million. In Q1, Sonic attracted a net capital inflow of $1.3 billion, ranking second among all blockchains during that period, showcasing strong capital attraction capabilities.
• Token Performance and Incentive Mechanisms: Compared to Fantom’s previous bull cycle, where $FTM appreciated by 190 times, Sonic’s native token $S has so far peaked at only around a 2x increase, indicating that there is still room for strengthening incentive effects.
• Modeling Assessment and Replication Probability: Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Sonic received a score of 6.5 out of 10. The Logistic Regression model indicates that, in its current state, Sonic has a 68.2% probability of replicating Fantom’s success. If capital inflows double and a bull market environment emerges, Monte Carlo simulations predict the probability could rise to as high as 82%.
• Key Challenges and Strategic Recommendations: To achieve true ecosystem evolution, Sonic must incubate 2–3 native protocols within six months, transition its economic model from subsidy-driven to real revenue-driven, and establish a sustainable “performance + ecosystem” dual-growth model through differentiated positioning and regulatory compliance.
• Future Outlook:If Sonic can effectively navigate market cycles and successfully complete its ecosystem transformation, it may break into the global top five blockchains. Otherwise, it risks repeating Fantom’s trajectory of a strong start followed by decline.

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and crypto research platform that provides readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, hot insights, market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer
This content does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation. You should always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that Gate.io may restrict or prohibit some or all services for users from restricted regions. For more information, please read the User Agreement at: https://www.gate.io/user-agreement.
Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risks. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.

Gate.io Team
May 12, 2025

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