At around 9 AM on November 11, according to OKX market data, the price of BTC briefly surged to approximately $81,733. This indicates that Bitcoin has firmly crossed the $81,000 threshold and entered the highly anticipated â80,000 USD era,â with just about 23% remaining to reach the next key level of $100,000. Encouraged by favorable factors such as Donald Trumpâs successful U.S. presidential election win, continued inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has once again embarked on its âjourney to the stars and the sea.â
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the market outlook and related viewpoints in this article for readersâ reference.
In our previous article, âBitcoin Sets New Historic Highs, Is $75,000 the Start of a Bull Market?â we discussed how Trumpâs potential election could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market in the following areas:
Among these, the most immediate impact is expected to be on Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. In the long term, cryptocurrency regulation and key government positions, such as the SEC chair, will continue to shape both the U.S. and the global attitude toward the crypto industry. According to multiple institutions and industry experts, as Bitcoinâs price continues to rise, Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve may become an increasingly attractive option for sovereign nations.
Trumpâs Election Likely to Lead to BTC as a National Strategic Reserve: Positive for BTC
With Trumpâs election, sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market has shifted significantly. Many experts believe that Trumpâs policy of embracing BTC will have a positive impact on Bitcoin and is expected to drive its adoption as a national strategic reserve.
Under Trumpâs leadership, the crypto market is expected to return to favoring BTC as a store of value. Several experts agree that Trumpâs election has injected a strong boost into the crypto market, especially for Bitcoin.
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of Trumpâs campaign crypto advisors, recently discussed the possibility of an unnamed sovereign nation quietly buying Bitcoin. He stated, âAt least one country has been actively purchasing Bitcoin and is now one of the top five holders. We hope to hear more about them soon.â
Some community members speculate that Qatar and Saudi Arabia might be the unnamed country Bailey referred to, but he clarified it is not China, Ukraine, the UK, Finland, or Georgia.
According to Bitcoin Magazine, German Member of Parliament Joana Cotar stated, âIf the U.S. purchases Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, I believe all European countries will experience FOMO.â
Tom Lee, co-founder and research director at Fundstrat, told CNBC that Bitcoin could become a treasury reserve asset, helping to offset U.S. deficits. He also predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year, with significant room for growth.
According to The Bitcoin Office in El Salvador, the country continues to buy one BTC per day. As of November 11, their Bitcoin holdings amounted to 5,930.77 BTC, valued at approximately $480 million.
Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Bhutan is actively involved in Bitcoin mining. Data shows that Bhutanâs weekly mining output is between 55 to 75 BTC, valued at around $3.6 million to $4.9 million. Previously, when Bitcoin surged to $71,000 on October 29, Bhutan transferred 929 BTC to Binance, worth about $66.1 million. Currently, according to Arkham data, Bhutan holds 12,562 BTC, worth approximately $1.02 billion.
Meanwhile, as news of Trumpâs election spreads further, institutional investor interest continues to rise, becoming a major driving force behind Bitcoinâs price reaching new highs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw $1.4 billion in inflows on November 7, possibly driven by the Trump effect. Among this, BlackRockâs iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone attracted $1.1 billion. Last month, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $6.7 billion, bringing the total for the year to $25.5 billion. The ETF is now close to 93% of its goal to surpass 1.1 million BTC, which is the total Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto.
According to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, BlackRockâs iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) surpassed the assets of its iShares Gold ETF (IAU) last Friday, achieving this in just 10 months. The iShares Gold ETF (IAU) was launched in January 2005.
BTC ETF ďź Gold ETF
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor hinted at continuing to increase his Bitcoin holdings, stating, âI think the SaylorTracker website needs more âgreen dotsâ.â (Note: The website tracks MicroStrategyâs Bitcoin purchases, with green dots indicating a Bitcoin buy.)
Previously, it was reported that MicroStrategyâs Bitcoin holdings had an unrealized gain of over $10 billion.
VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck previously stated in an interview that Bitcoin will set a new all-time high on Friday, with the price breaking $77,000 for the first time.
When asked whether Bitcoin could reach $100,000, he said, âBitcoin will set a new all-time high â and if it does today, I think it will keep rising. My fundamental assumption is that Bitcoinâs total value will eventually be half of the unmined gold value, so its potential price is around $300,000. Individual investors are indeed flooding into Bitcoin ETFs.â
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss stated that Bitcoin reaching $80,000 was mainly driven by sustained institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs, rather than retail FOMO. He believes that this âstickyâ demand from institutional investors signals long-term bullish sentiment, and the current market cycle is still in its early stages.
Winklevoss said, âThe road to $80,000 for Bitcoin has been paved by stable ETF demand. Itâs not retail FOMO. Thereâs no fanfare. People are buying ETFs, not selling them. This is sticky HODL-type capital. The floor price is rising, we just won the coin toss, the game hasnât really started.â
Bitwise Invest CEO Hunter Horsley stated that while Bitcoin set a new all-time high this week, it hasnât sparked concerns over overvaluation, as seen with stocks. âBitcoin is different,â he explained. âWhen a companyâs stock price rises, its P/E ratio also rises, and eventually people say âthis is overvalued,â and interest fades until the price falls.â
Horsley added that without the same financial performance metrics, âwhen Bitcoinâs price rises, people believe itâs more likely to succeed, so it becomes more valuable, which means itâs likely to keep rising.â
CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill previously stated that four catalysts will drive Bitcoinâs price higher: changes in SEC leadership, crypto-friendly regulation, further adoption by big companies, and Fed rate cuts. Butterfill further explained that for Bitcoin to reach $100,000, it needs to increase by about 33%, and a $100,000 Bitcoin âdoesnât sound unreasonableâ since its market cap would only represent â10% of the gold market share.â He added that Trumpâs victory and the Republican control of the Senate could make it easier to push for a âloosened regulatory framework,â which could make this price target achievable.
Bitcoin has set multiple all-time highs this week without showing signs of âoverheating,â several analysts noted. Some fundamental factors suggest that Bitcoin may continue to rise. âFrom a fundamental perspective, the market doesnât seem overheated,â said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, in a market report. Crypto analysis firm Nansenâs analyst Aurelie Barthere expressed similar views. âBitcoin breaking all-time highs with high trading volume is a clear sign of sustained positive momentum post-election.â
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese listed company Metaplanet, previously stated that the companyâs Bitcoin strategy has led its stock price to rise about 1,017% this year, making it the best-performing Japanese stock in 2024. The company launched its Bitcoin initiative in April and has since become Asiaâs second-largest Bitcoin holder, behind Boya Interactive. According to Yahoo Finance data, the stock has surged 740% in six months, from $190 in April to $1,596 at Fridayâs close.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, previously stated that following Trumpâs election, Bitcoinâs price could reach $125,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast aligns with estimates made by research and brokerage firm Bernstein analysts earlier this month.
It is clear that as numerous TradFi asset management giants, publicly listed companies, and Bitcoin reserve strategy implementers join the market, their positions are now tightly aligned with the cryptocurrency industry.
Although the market greed index has risen rapidly, amidst the atmosphere of excessive excitement and FOMO, many crypto analysts and industry builders have offered differing opinions. Below are some representative views:
CZ recently wrote that with Bitcoin continuously reaching new all-time highs, investors need to practice proper risk management. He pointed out that there will be many more lows (and highs) in the future, and it is crucial to be prepared to handle them, control oneâs greed, and avoid putting all eggs in one basket.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant, posted last Thursday that new investors often hold Bitcoin during bear markets and, after experiencing losses, tend to sell when the market stabilizes about two years later. He believes that now is the time for this transition. Bitcoin could rise another 30-40% from its current level, but it will not replicate the 368% increase from $16,000. He advises investors to consider gradually selling rather than continuing to go âall-in.â
On November 10, possibly driven by Bitcoinâs new high, he again posted, stating, âBitcoin has just entered the price discovery phase.â Meanwhile, he also warned that Bitcoinâs price by the end of the year might be slightly below $59,000 and highlighted that the overheated futures market could be one of the main reasons for a potential market crash by year-end.
Has Bitcoin entering the price discovery phase?
Presto Research Analyst: $100,000 Will Be Bitcoinâs Next âInterest Levelâ
Presto Research investment analyst Min Jung stated that traders are excited about Bitcoinâs prospects. âIn the short term, due to the symbolic nature of numbers and digital changes, $100k will become the next major interest level. The U.S. may eventually add Bitcoin to its balance sheetâperhaps as part of a âstrategic Bitcoin reserveâ or similar asset. With this in mind, our target is in the $110,000 range.â
It is clear that, despite the risks, some industry professionals remain cautious about the currently overheated market sentiment.
Under the influence of various factors, individual retail investors are ârushing into the market.â The âTrump effectâ may continue to impact the participation of investors in the cryptocurrency industry.
Market observers note that following Trumpâs election victory, the surge in Bitcoinâs Google search volume suggests an increase in retail investor interest in digital assets. Solv Protocol co-founder Ryan Chow states that Trumpâs victory is âthe main catalyst for starting the next bull market.â Crypto macro analyst Noelle Acheson adds, âOverall, retail investors tend to be âlatecomers,â influenced by headline news and widespread social attention related to price movements. The absence of retail investors in the market suggests that the crypto cycle is still in its early stages. When retail investors begin to âflood in,â weâll know weâre approaching the peak of speculation.â
According to IntoTheBlock, Bitcoinâs large-volume transactions surged to $90 billion on November 6, marking a significant increase in whale activity following the U.S. election.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, shared that he purchased his first Bitcoin at $6,000 and will continue buying at $76,000. He currently holds 73 Bitcoins and plans to increase his holdings to 100 Bitcoins within a year.
Fadi Aboualfa, research director at crypto custody firm Copper.co, believes that Bitcoinâs price could reach $100,000 by January 20, 2025, when Trump is inaugurated. He adds that this increase is happening âagainst the backdrop of a weak dollar,â which is different from todayâs strong-dollar environment. Given that Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about 1.1 million BTC, momentum in the coming months may be positive.
Furthermore, Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, states that while predicting Bitcoinâs price is difficult, reaching the $100,000 target in the next few months âdoes not seem far-fetched.â He adds, âGiven the bullish momentum and the fact that the economy has avoided a recession, we expect Bitcoin to have limited downside from here. The $100,000 target looks very reasonable.â
Overall, retail investors remain optimistic about the future, and the continuous wealth generation effect and the popularity of the market are expected to attract ongoing participation from new investors.
From the perspectives of national, institutional, and individual levels, with Bitcoin successfully holding the $80,000 mark, its price reaching $100,000 seems inevitable, whether soon or later. However, throughout this process, the market may undergo multiple small adjustments. After Trump officially takes office in January, the development of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and a series of crypto-friendly regulatory measures are highly anticipated.
Until then, as Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester previously stated: âBitcoin rising to $79,000 and hitting a new high is just the beginning. This is a time to maintain the right approach and stay steady. Thereâs no need for hasty actionsâHODLing will do the job for you.â