Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report: BTC Consolidates with Slight Rise, Progress in Tariff Negotiations

This week, the Crypto Assets market performed steadily, with the BTC price rising slightly by 1.84%, closing at 117312.70 dollars. In addition to US economic data, the focus of the market also includes the progress of tariff negotiations globally.

Bitcoin Market Performance

Bitcoin oscillated this week in the range of 115,000 to 120,000 dollars. The price peaked at 120,300.00 dollars and fell to a low of 114,750.00 dollars, with an amplitude of 4.73%. Trading volume remained at a high level, indicating good market activity.

Despite some selling pressure around $120,000, buying support from institutional investors and spot ETFs has supported the price. The market is in a state of balance between buyers and sellers.

Macroeconomic Environment

Economic data released by the United States shows that the economy still possesses resilience. The number of initial jobless claims for the week was lower than expected, while the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was slightly below expectations. These data have had a certain impact on the expectations for a rate cut in September, with the current market estimating the probability of a rate cut in September to be around 64.5%.

Significant progress has been made in global tariff negotiations. The United States has reached new trade agreements with Japan and the European Union, generally setting tariff rates at around 15%, which is lower than previously expected by the market. This progress is seen as beneficial in alleviating global trade tensions.

Crypto Assets Market Trends

Ethereum rose slightly by 3.07% this week, continuing its strong performance from last week. This has fueled market expectations for the "Altcoin Season". Although most small-cap coins have seen a pullback, some quality projects remain strong. Bitcoin's market share has slightly dropped to 60%.

In terms of capital flow, the total net inflow for the entire market this week reached $6.002 billion. Among them, the stablecoin channel saw an inflow of $3.192 billion, the Bitcoin spot ETF channel saw an inflow of $702 million, and corporate purchases of Bitcoin amounted to $898 million. Notably, the Ethereum spot ETF channel saw an inflow of $1.842 billion, surpassing the inflow of the Bitcoin ETF.

Long-term holders continued to reduce their holdings this week, selling approximately 190,000 BTC over the past three weeks. This has increased supply pressure in the market, but the continued inflow of off-exchange funds has effectively absorbed this selling pressure.

Market Outlook

The current market has basically digested the systemic risks, and a new economic cycle is about to begin. The main factors affecting market trends include expectations of interest rate cuts, global trade relations, and the growth of corporate profits brought about by technological innovations such as AI. Changes in these factors may have a significant impact on the stock market and the Crypto Assets market.

According to the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator provided by eMerge Engine, the current value is 0.5, indicating an upward trend. This suggests that the Bitcoin market may still have room for rise.

Investors should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends, the subsequent developments in global trade negotiations, and the changes in institutional investors' attitudes towards Crypto Assets. At the same time, they should also be wary of the risks that may arise from overly heated market sentiment.