Bitcoin Eyes $69K Retest amid Short-Selling Pressure below All-Time Highs
[TL; DR]
There is a high possibility that the Bitcoin price may retest $69,000 before rallying higher.
Bitcoin may be bullish between now and the United States presidential election period.
By the end of 2024 the Bitcoin price may fluctuate between $150,000 and $350,000.
Introduction
Bitcoin, which attained a new all-time high of $73,737 in March, has experienced mixed fortunes since that time as its price has had strong dips and bounces. The recent halving event and the launch of the Runes protocol did not induce sustained bullishness for the number one cryptocurrency. This analysis focuses on bitcoin’s recent price movement as it aims to surpass its recent ATH.
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action and Analysis
In the last few weeks the bitcoin price surged giving crypto investors hope that it may surpass $73,737, its recent ATH. Unfortunately during that surge bitcoin failed to break above $69,000, a key psychological level. For example, during the first week of June the bitcoin price was compressed within a narrow range and its effort to rally above $72,000 was stalled by the bears’ selling pressure.
Notably, on 7 June the bitcoin price rose past $71,700 in the morning as a result of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s announcement of a rate cut. However, it soon tumbled and dipped below $70,000 before rising to $70,600 hours later. One reason for the consistent price fluctuations is the spot selling activity on Binance and Coinbase crypto exchanges. On the other hand, there was much short-selling of perpetual futures on various derivative marketplaces. Such market activities resulted in the bitcoin price dips and bounces.
Read also: Understanding the Dip: Bitcoin’s Price Post-Halving
Online data from CoinGlass implies that such bitcoin price fluctuations may continue for a long period as the market tries to adjust to investor sentiments following the recent bitcoin halving event in April. According to the CoinGlass data heatmap, there is a build-up within the $68,000 and $72,000 price area which may lead to a breakout.
Anyway, the bitcoin price action during the cited period shows a potential bullish market. Reacting to the BTC price movement, analysts at Secure Digital Markets said, “Bitcoin appears poised for a potential surge towards historic highs, with a mere 4% gap remaining.” They added, “Market sentiment suggests a favourable outlook for the crypto space under a Trump administration, prompting Standard Chartered analysts to revise their BTC price target to $150,000 by year-end under such circumstances.”
What happened to bitcoin during the cited period was not a unique experience as most major cryptocurrencies had pullbacks as well. The 1% decline in the Coindesk Index indicates a slight market correction that occurred, affecting several crypto assets. On the other hand, Chainlink’s LINK, Uniswap‘s token (UNI) and NEAR’s NEAR lost by between 3% and 5%.
Read also: Bitcoin Price Prediction & Forecast for 2024, 2025, 2030
Indicators on the potential retest of $69,000
In view of BTC price movement some crypto analysts and key market indicators have shown a possibility of a bitcoin retest of the $69,000 support level. For example, Material Indicators, a trading resource platform, suggests that it is time for bitcoin to revisit the $69,000 mark. Posting on its X profile it said, “Both Trend Precognition algos are showing new TradingSignals indicating that it may be time to retest local support.”
It added, “For me, a move back to $71.6k invalidates, and a hot Unemployment Report in the morning could be a catalyst for a move like that.” Keith Alan, the Material Indicators co-founder was able to give their reasons for anticipating bitcoin’s retesting of the $69,000 price level. He said, “With the 21-Day Moving Average hovering around $68.8k technical support is strong, but a cooler than expected Unemployment Report or a rug pull could send prices lower and punish late longs.”
On the other hand, Michaël van de Poppe, the founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, said that he was looking forward to bitcoin’s breakout. He commented on X.com: “Bitcoin is still stuck within the range, but very heavily ready for a breakout upwards to a new all-time high. Slowly, but surely, the altcoins are rolling along. It’s a good time.”
Michaël van de Poppe blamed the lukewarm bitcoin performance on whale activity. He believes that these large-volume investors (whales) are holding back the market in order to protect their short positions. According to him there are many positions between $71,500 and $75,000. As a result, the whales are holding back bitcoin’s upward price rise to prevent the liquidation of their short positions.
Recent news: Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle: Aiming for $155000 Peak by August
Macro Influences on Bitcoin’s Price
Although several factors might be weighing in on the current bitcoin performance, the interest rate cuts by several central banks has improved the crypto market sentiment resulting in bitcoin’s recent bullishness. As an example, the European Central Bank (ECB) has announced its first interest rate cut within a 5-year period. With such a development some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve may also decide to reduce the Fed Rate.
Secure Digital Markets said, “While the Fed’s upcoming rate decision is anticipated to maintain the status quo, increasing speculation suggests a likelihood of rate cuts in September, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for May serving as a key indicator for potential Fed actions amidst observations of a softening labour market.”
Some investment analysts think that the period between now and the U.S elections should be bullish in nature as the Presidential candidates often delve into crypto issues as part of their campaigns. For instance, a few weeks back Donald Trump, one of the presidential candidate hopefuls, endorsed cryptocurrencies and he even requested campaign donations in bitcoin or any other crypto assets. As an instance, Kendrick said, “As we approach the U.S. election, I expect $100K to be reached and then $150k by year-end in the case of a Trump victory.”
Also, worldwide liquidity (M2) which is nearing $100 trillion may help to push prices of some cryptocurrencies up. At the present moment M2 is $3 trillion higher than its figure when bitcoin attained $69,000 as its all-time-high value in 2021. There are market signs that the price of bitcoin may surge further to correlate with changes in M2. As of now, bitcoin is moving towards breaking out of its seven-year consolidation period while the M2 is gradually rising.
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Commenting on this TecDev said, “In fact, it represents a textbook breakout of a 5-year broadening wedge. The last 5 years have been corrective against M1. $BTC is once again impulsive against it for the first time since 2017. We’ve never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this one.” The following graph shows the gradual increase in M2.
Global growth in M2 – Kitco
As The Graph indicates, the M2 is gradually rising, indicating a possibility of rising prices of various crypto assets including bitcoin.
Looking Ahead: Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
Several crypto analysts have indicated that bitcoin may rally during the remainder of 2024. What differs among their point of views are the margins of BTC price rises. We have already seen that analysts at Standard Chartered Bank believe that the bitcoin price may reach $150,000 by the end of 2024 despite the existing cryptocurrency volatility. There is a high possibility that many whale investors will buy bitcoin and hold it as we move towards the end of the year.
The Standard Chartered Bank analysts believe that favourable Unemployment data may create a positive market sentiment that may lead to a bullish bitcoin outlook in the near future. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said “I am sticking with my end-2024 $150K and end-2025 $200K forecasts for BTC,” then added, Before then, if tomorrow’s payrolls data are friendly I would expect a fresh all-time-high to be reached over the weekend.”
On the other hand, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad suggests that bitcoin may reach $350,000 by August 2024. He tweeted, “BITCOIN will be $350,000 by August 25, 2024 is not a lie. It’s a prediction. It’s speculation, it’s an opinion, but it’s not a lie.”
Conclusion
Since bitcoin is fluctuating between $70,000 and $74,000 some analysts anticipate it to fall and retest the $69,000 price level. In general, though, the bitcoin price is likely to rise during the remainder of the year, targeting between $150,000 and $350,000. A favourable macroeconomic climate and a rise in whale acquisition may influence the BTC price to rise.
