Gate Daily: Do Kwon may plead guilty this week; Ethereum holders will flow back to Bitcoin; Turkey's arrest of ETH developers sparks panic.

Bitcoin (BTC) has retraced from its overnight high, currently reported around 118,780 USD during the Asian session today (12). Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon may plead guilty, as the U.S. court has scheduled a hearing for August 12. Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow predicts that Ethereum (ETH) holders will return to Bitcoin. Turkey has arrested Ethereum developer Fede, causing panic in the crypto assets community.

Today's Outlook

1. China's M2 money supply (year-on-year) at the end of July was 8.3%, previous value.

2. The cash rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia was 3.85%.

3. The unemployment rate in the UK for June was 4.54%, previous value.

4. The unemployment rate in the UK for July was 4.54%.

5. The ILO unemployment rate in the UK for three months to June was 4.7% previously.

6. Germany's August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, previous value was 52.7

7. The seasonally unadjusted core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States in July (year-on-year) was previously 2.9%.

8, U.S. July unadjusted Consumer Price Index (year-over-year), previous value was 2.7%

9. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision.

10. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe holds a monetary policy press conference.

11. Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin delivers a speech.

12. OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report.

Macroeconomic Events & Crypto Circle Hotspots

1. The federal judge responsible for hearing the case of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon has scheduled a hearing for Tuesday, during which he "may change his defense." In a document submitted to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) on August 11, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the parties to appear in court on the 12th, which may indicate that Kwon is preparing to change his defense against some or all of the charges. After months of extradition court battles in Montenegro, he was ultimately extradited back to the U.S., where he pleaded not guilty to nine felony charges in January. "The defendant should prepare a narrative statement covering all elements of the crimes to which he pleads guilty," Engelmayer said. "For clarity and efficiency, the court encourages attorneys to assist the defendant in drafting a statement to be read in open court during the plea proceedings." In March 2023, Do Kwon was indicted on charges of securities fraud, market manipulation, money laundering, and telecommunications fraud during his time at Terraform. He is accused of causing the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, resulting in the evaporation of $40 billion in investor assets.

2. Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow predicts that once the price of Ethereum (ETH) is high enough, Ethereum investors will switch back to Bitcoin, which could reverse the upward momentum of ETH over the past five weeks. However, historical market cycle patterns may suggest otherwise. The CEO of the Bitcoin adoption company JAN3 stated over the weekend: "Most ETH holders have a significant amount of BTC (ICO/insiders), and they are converting these BTC into ETH to inject it into a new narrative (Ethereum Treasury Company)." He added that once Ethereum reaches a sufficient high, they will sell off ETH, creating a new generation of holders, and then convert the proceeds back into BTC.

3. Turkish authorities have detained an Ethereum developer known as Fede Intern in Izmir, who disclosed the arrest on August 10, sparking controversy within the crypto assets community, with many considering it a disturbing precedent. As of the time of publication, few details regarding his detention are available, but Fede stated that Turkish authorities accuse him of allowing others to "abuse" the blockchain network. He wrote, "The Turkish Interior Minister said I helped people abuse Ethereum." However, specific examples or evidence of how he assisted in this matter have not been made public, and the lack of details has raised skepticism among some industry observers. The detained developer warned that such accusations could criminalize legitimate blockchain development, adding, "Privacy is not a crime. We should hold the wrongdoers accountable, not the builders." Fede emphasized that he would cooperate with the Turkish government’s investigation. He said, "I am completely willing to cooperate with any authority in Turkey or any country; we have not helped anyone do anything, but we will also protect ourselves."

Market Trends

1. $BTC has pulled back from the overnight high, currently reported at around 118,780 USD, with a liquidation of 14.83 million USD in the past 24 hours, mainly in short positions;

2. The U.S. stock market's major indices pulled back from last week's historic highs on August 11, with all four major indices closing lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 422.17 points or 0.94%, closing at 44,406.36 points. The S&P 500 Index fell 49.37 points or 0.79%, closing at 6,229.98 points. The Nasdaq Index declined 188.58 points or 0.92%, closing at 20,412.52 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased 105.92 points or 1.88%, closing at 5,541.20 points.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 118,923.20 USDT, if it drops to around 118,902 USD, the total liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 732 million USD; if it rises to around 121,284 USD, the total liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 449 million USD. The liquidation amount for the short side is significantly lower than that for the long side, and it is recommended to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 3.28 billion USD, outflow was 3.39 billion USD, with a net outflow of 110 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $ETH, $BTC, $SOL, $XRP, and $DOGE have seen a net outflow, indicating trading opportunities.

News Updates

1. Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon may plead guilty, with a hearing scheduled in the U.S. court on August 12.

2. USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC in Ether early in the morning.

3. An institution/whale has added nearly 60,000 ETH, currently holding 1.24 billion USD in ETH.

4. Stripe collaborates with Paradigm to develop the Tempo blockchain.

5. The Uniswap Foundation plans to adopt the Wyoming DUNA framework to promote the protocol fee mechanism.

6. Mill City Ventures repurchased 20 million USD SUI tokens.

7. Trump announced a public safety emergency in Washington D.C.

8. Paxos applies to convert its New York trust license to a national trust license in the United States.

9. Bezos' aerospace company Blue Origin will accept Bitcoin and Crypto Assets as payment.

10. ENS multi-signature wallet transferred nearly 142,000 ENS to the trading platform.

11. Zoth received a strategic investment of $15 million from Bolts Capital to promote RWA on-chain.

12. Safety Shot announced a strategic partnership with BONK, acquiring 25 million BONK tokens.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): "Today's task isn't too difficult. Although there has been some price fluctuation, the overall sentiment among investors is quite good. Tomorrow is the announcement day for the CPI. I've noticed that the reactions of the US stock market and BTC are quite similar, both showing slight oscillations, which is normal. The recent CPI and retail data have seen some hedging sentiment, which is quite normal since the market's expected data isn't optimistic. The data shows that last month's broad CPI figure is 2.7%, while the market expects 2.8%. The prediction from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank is 2.72%. Although there is a slight gap, it also means that if there are no problems, the broad CPI is likely to be within expectations or slightly below expectations, with CPI values probably between 2.7 and 2.8. Of course, since this is data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, if the situation really falls below 2.7%, it would be positive for the market. Also, the monthly rate of CPI is expected by the market and the prediction from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank to be lower than the previous value, indicating that the transmission pressure of inflation isn't very significant. The core CPI figures are also all greater than or equal to last month's figures, so overall the situation isn't very optimistic. If we follow market expectations, inflation in the US is still expected to continue rising, but this inflation only includes basic tariffs and does not formally include tariffs. While a slight increase is normal, it also shows that US inflation is still temporarily affected by tariffs. However, I still believe that current investors have begun to become desensitized to tariffs, as the main game now isn't just about what the Federal Reserve says, but rather the game between Trump's radicals and the Federal Reserve's conservatives. The Trump faction will primarily push for rate cuts as long as the data isn't too exaggerated, while the conservatives will likely hold onto rates until they see inflation data to demonstrate their integrity. Therefore, if the data is good, it will be a happy outcome for everyone, allowing everyone to step down gracefully. If the data is bad, it doesn't necessarily mean that everyone should be overly pessimistic, as the expectation of a rate cut in September is quite probable. In the past, I've always said that since the rate hikes in 2022, the market has never won against the Federal Reserve, but this time, I really don't know."

"Looking back at the data for Bitcoin, the increase in turnover rate starting Monday was within expectations, after all, the price of BTC rose quite well over the weekend, triggering a lot of turnover from short-term investors. The data clearly shows that short-term investors are currently the main force in the turnover, while earlier investors are still taking a wait-and-see attitude, and have not panicked or exited because BTC's price has returned to 120,000 USD. Although there has been a lot of turnover, the changes in the chips at the two support levels are still quite small, and there has been no significant exit situation, indicating that investors at these two positions are gradually turning into long-term investors. As for the seventh support area, as I mentioned yesterday, it is gradually taking shape. Whether it can form is another matter, and we need to observe more."