Bitcoin Volatility Persists as Short-Term Holders Signal Possible Upside

Bitcoin’s price action remained turbulent this week, swinging sharply between fresh record highs and notable pullbacks. On Thursday, the world’s largest cryptocurrency surged to an all-time high of $123,731 before retreating to $119,937 — a decline of roughly 4% from the peak.

Despite the heightened volatility, on-chain metrics suggest that short-term holders (STHs) are shifting into accumulation mode, a move that could help support another leg higher in the near term.

Short-Term Holders Return to Accumulation

Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) — a measure of whether coins held for 155 days or less are being sold at a profit or loss — has bounced back above the neutral level of 1 after briefly dipping below it.

A reading above 1 indicates that STHs are selling at a profit, typically reflecting strong market sentiment, while a reading below 1 suggests they are selling at a loss. Because STHs often hold coins at prices close to the current market level, they tend to react quickly to volatility, amplifying both rallies and selloffs.

The recent shift toward holding rather than selling, even amid sharp swings, points to growing conviction among this influential investor group — a factor that could help stabilize the market and fuel upside momentum.

Derivatives Traders Show Strong Buyer Aggression

Sentiment in Bitcoin’s derivatives market also appears to be leaning bullish. CryptoQuant data shows the taker buy/sell ratio has reached a monthly high of 1.16, meaning that more futures and perpetual contract trades are being executed at the ask price than at the bid price.

This imbalance signals aggressive buying pressure, with traders actively absorbing sell-side liquidity. Sustained buyer dominance at this level can indicate strengthening demand and increase the likelihood of a price rebound.

Price Outlook: $122K Retest or Drop Toward $115K?

If current on-chain and derivatives trends persist, Bitcoin could retest the $122,000 resistance zone in the short term. A breakout above $122,190 may pave the way for another run at the all-time high of $123,731.

However, if volatility intensifies and bullish conviction fades, sell-side pressure could reassert itself, potentially driving the price down toward $115,892.