The Bitcoin price level to follow when hopes of cutting down the whales by the Fed fade.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle to break through the resistance level of $86,000 on April 16 as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dashed hopes for an early rate cut, citing the impact from Trump's tariffs.

Since April 9th, the price of BTC has fluctuated between $75,000 and $86,400, but it has not been able to close above $86,000.

BTC/USD Chart – 1 Day | Source: TradingViewMany analysts and traders are asking the question: "Where will the price of Bitcoin go?" as this asset remains trapped in a narrow range on the lower time frame of the 4-hour chart.

88% chance of unchanged interest rate

Bettors on Polymarket indicate there is an 88% chance that the current interest rate will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, with only a 10% chance of cutting down the whales by 0.25%.

Expectations about interest rates | Source: PolymarketHowever, the market believes that any price fall action from not cutting down the whales interest rates has already been priced in.

On April 16, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Speaking in Chicago, he emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, needing more economic data before adjusting policy.

Powell highlighted the risks from President Trump's tariffs, which could drive inflation and slow growth, creating a "challenging scenario" for the Fed's dual mandate of stabilizing prices and promoting the labor market.

"The announced tariff increase so far is much larger than expected," Powell said in his speech.

"This will have an impact on the economy, including higher inflation and slower growth."

He emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy to ensure stable inflation, not suggesting any immediate interest rate cuts despite market volatility and uncertainty regarding tariffs.

As a result, President Trump threatened to fire Powell, arguing that he "always makes decisions too late and wrongly" and that his report on April 16th was a "mess."

"The firing of Powell cannot happen fast enough!"

Meanwhile, Polymarket currently indicates a 46% chance that the price of Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by April 30, with the likelihood of reaching a new ATH above $110,000 being less than 5%.

Important price levels to watch

Bitcoin must reverse the resistance level of $86,000 into support in order to aim for a higher level of $90,000.

For this to happen, BTC/USD must first regain its position above the 200-day exponential moving average (purple) around $87,740. This trend line has been lost for the first time since August 2024 on March 9.

Above that, there is a large supply zone that extends as far as $91.240, where there is a 100-day SMA. The bulls will also have to overcome this hurdle to increase their chances towards the psychological $100,000 mark.

BTC price chart – 1 day | Source: TradingViewConversely, the bears will attempt to keep the price below the resistance level of $86,000, increasing the likelihood of a new bottom occurring below $80,000. The area to watch is between $76,000 and the previous bottom at $74,000.

Below, the next move will be to test the price level on Election Day in the United States at $67,817, eliminating any growth momentum created after Trump's victory.

On-chain analyst, James Check, pointed out that the true bottom of Bitcoin lies at the "market average," the average cost basis for investors, around the $65,000 area.

"If it cannot maintain the price in this area, the next step BTC may return to the consolidation range at $65,000."

Interestingly, this price level is close to the cost basis from Michael Saylor's Strategy, around $67,500.

You can see the BTC price here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Viet Cuong