QCP: The crypto market is stagnating, and forex may become a precursor signal for the next round of macro storms.

QCP analysis indicates that the implied Volatility in the crypto market remains sluggish, with short-term Options skew returning to neutral, and Spot prices lacking a clear direction. Meanwhile, gold rose nearly 3% on Monday, reflecting the market's increased pricing power regarding the weakness of the dollar and geopolitical uncertainty. Going forward, the market may face two drastically different trends: one is a sudden volatility shock that detaches Bitcoin from its safe-haven correlation with gold, re-linking it to risk assets; the other is trade factors becoming the dominant logic, with strong Asia-Pacific currencies enhancing regional bargaining power and catalyzing global fund reallocation. As the correlation between assets gradually loosens, the forex market may once again become a leading signal for macro risk evolution.