Predicting Bitcoin price after the halving in 2028

Every four years, a piece of code in the Bitcoin system triggers an event that has the potential to change the entire landscape of the crypto market. This is halving – a mechanism that reduces the amount of Bitcoin created after each new transaction block by half. It seems like a simple action, but it has an incredibly large impact, and in the past, it has often been the precursor to the strongest fluctuations in the crypto market.

Satoshi Nakamoto – the mysterious founder of Bitcoin – designed this mechanism to increase scarcity from the very beginning. The rule is very simple: after every 210,000 blocks of transactions added to the blockchain, the reward for miners is halved. When it was first launched in 2009, the reward for each block was 50 BTC. After the halving in 2024, that number will only be 3.125 BTC.

What will happen in 2028?

As we enter the halving event in 2028, the reward will continue to fall to just 1.5625 BTC per block. This process will continue until the last Bitcoin is mined – around the year 2140.

However, this is not just a dry technical detail, but the center of the entire story about Bitcoin. This mechanism ensures that the release of new coins occurs slowly and predictably – in stark contrast to how governments can print more money at any time. It is this programmed scarcity from the beginning that leads many to call Bitcoin "digital gold." In the past, each halving has been like a dose of "rocket fuel" driving the crypto market, leading to strong bull runs.

So what about 2028? According to the programming code, the next halving will take place in the spring of that year, at block number 1,050,000. As expected, there are already many forecasts made, among which some analysts set the price target for Bitcoin in the following years to reach between 150,000 USD to 300,000 USD. However, we need to note one thing: this time the party may not be as enthusiastic as before. The impact of each halving seems to be diminishing.

After the halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin increased by nearly 9,000%. In 2016, the increase was 2,900%, and the cycle in 2020 was only about 700%. This is the inevitable result of the mathematical law: as the market becomes larger, a huge amount of capital is needed to create impressive percentage increases like before.

For miners – those who maintain the network – each halving is like a "financial blow." Overnight, their income from mining new coins is cut in half. This happened after the halving in April 2024, when their daily revenue plummeted suddenly, forcing some miners to leave the game. Those who bear high electricity costs or use outdated equipment will not be able to compete and will have to cease operations. This sometimes causes the total computing power of the network to temporarily fluctuate. To survive, miners are forced to continuously seek cheaper power sources and more powerful equipment.

What happened after the halving in 2024?

This time, the old rules seem to no longer apply. The 2024 halving is the first to occur after the United States approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, paving the way for a massive inflow of funds from institutional investors. Demand from institutions is a completely new factor. It could even be argued that it is the combination of these factors, along with the possibility of Trump being re-elected as President of the United States in November 2024, that contributes to pushing BTC prices to new heights, surpassing the threshold of 120,000 USD.

Source: TradingViewMoreover, the fate of Bitcoin is now more closely tied to the global economy than ever before. Factors such as interest rates, inflation, or concerns about recession could completely disrupt a post-halving price surge.

Moreover, new legal regulations are also changing the game. In Europe, the MiCA legal framework has officially come into effect, while the US is also gradually moving closer to cryptocurrency legislation such as FIT21. Clearer regulations could serve as a strong impetus to encourage institutional investors to participate – or conversely, create barriers depending on the specific content.

Looking towards the distant future, there remains a controversial question surrounding the security of Bitcoin. As the reward for mining each new block approaches zero, the network will have to rely on transaction fees. The problem is that no one can be sure whether those fees will be enough to "support" miners in continuing to secure the network for the next few decades.

History has painted an optimistic picture, but nothing is certain. A global recession, an unexpected ban from a major country, or another collapse of a major cryptocurrency company could break all the rules.

Therefore, although the halving of 2028 has been encoded in advance, its actual impact on the crypto market is still uncertain. It will be a confluence of predictable scarcity and unpredictable chaos stemming from institutional money flows, global economic volatility, and user behavior.

Itadori