Fed's decision preview: No interest rate cut this week, policy inflection point is likely in the fall 🔥🔥🔥🔥 The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) will announce the interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference with Chairman Powell 30 minutes later. Although major policy decisions are unlikely to be made, this week's meeting is still full of highlights.

It is almost certain that the Fed's statement will be similar to that of the June meeting - the content of the statement will not change much, and officials will pause interest rate cuts for the fifth consecutive meeting. However, several intriguing subplots will unfold.
First, two Federal Reserve governors—Waller and Bowman—may vote "no" on maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range. If this happens, it would be the first time since the end of 1993 that multiple governors have voted against it. Both advocate for a rate cut. Waller, as a candidate to potentially succeed Chair Powell next year, has a more significant voting weight.
Secondly, this meeting is the first since Trump's historic visit to the Fed construction site and the outbreak of the cost overruns controversy. Fed officials have countered White House criticism through active public relations, and this issue will certainly be mentioned at Powell's post-meeting press conference.
Finally, the Fed has many considerations regarding economic issues, including the possibility that Trump's tariffs may not raise inflation as much as many economists are concerned about. This makes the rationale for delaying interest rate cuts more difficult to establish, while Trump's demands for significant easing policies complicate the background.
Bill English, former head of monetary affairs at the Fed and current professor at Yale School of Management, stated, "If they choose easing, they gain nothing except appearing to compromise with the president. Therefore, I believe their best strategy is undoubtedly to focus on the data, make the best judgments, formulate policy decisions, and explain as clearly as possible."
Bank Policy Institute(Chief Economist Bill Nelson)said in a report on Tuesday, "There is no doubt that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged, the question is whether they will express a greater willingness to cut rates at the September meeting," said Nelson, who previously served as the Fed's chief economist.