#BTCÐ Launchpool收益超3%# Non-farm payroll data expectations (expected: 110,000) compared to the previous value (original: 147,000). If the actual value meets or is lower than the expectation, it may have the following impact on the Ethereum (ETH) and other Crypto Assets markets:

1. The likelihood of short-term benefits is relatively high.

- Weakening Dollar Expectations: Non-farm data below previous values may indicate a slowdown in the U.S. economy, weakening expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar index. Historical patterns show that when the dollar is weak, funds may flow into high-risk assets (such as Crypto Assets), driving up prices of ETH and others.
- Hedging and speculative demand: If the data raises concerns about an economic recession, some funds may view crypto assets as a hedge against traditional markets, especially Ethereum as one of the mainstream crypto assets, which has strong liquidity and is easily affected by capital inflows.

2. Specific conduction path

- After data release (20:30):
- If the actual value ≤110,000: The market may interpret it as economic weakness, ETH may rebound quickly, but be wary of a sudden increase in volatility (such as ±5% price fluctuations).
- If the actual value unexpectedly exceeds expectations (e.g., close to the previous value of 147,000): a stronger dollar may suppress ETH prices, leading to a short-term correction.
- Medium-term impact: If the data strengthens the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts, ETH may benefit from the expectations of liquidity easing, but it is necessary to comprehensively assess based on subsequent inflation data.

3. Risks to be Aware Of

- Market sentiment amplifies volatility: Non-farm payroll data has always been a high-volatility event. Even if it is positive for ETH, there may be a short-term reversal of "buy the rumor, sell the news" due to leverage liquidation or institutional arbitrage.
- Related market linkage: Need to pay attention to the response of the US stock market (especially technology stocks). If the US stock market crashes, it may drag down the risk appetite in the crypto market.