ETH has reached 4000 points for the fourth time! Is this a bull run starting or has the sickle been raised?

When the market software popped up a notification that ETH broke through the 4000 points, the entire crypto circle went into a frenzy again. Some leveraged trading overnight to chase the bullish trend, while others stared at the K-line trembling in fear, after all, this is already the fourth time ETH has challenged this crucial threshold since 2024, and the outcomes of the previous three times still haunt the old investors. Today, we will delve into the underlying logic of this wave of rising momentum, and by understanding these signals, you will be able to see the upcoming game clearly.

First, let's take a look at the unavoidable "4000-point curse." After breaking through for the first time in March 2024, it plummeted 30% within 40 days; after reaching 3980 points in May, it halved directly to 2112 in less than 3 months; the peak moment of 4109 points in December last year became a prelude to the crash to 1384 in April this year. Three attempts to break through and three failures, this point is no longer just a number but a psychological dividing line in the market's bullish and bearish battle. However, looking closely at the current trend, there is a clear difference from the previous three times: the breakthrough was accompanied by a 24-hour trading volume expanding to 80 billion USD, 30% higher than the previous peak, with more evident signs of capital entering the market.
Technical indicators hide more critical signals. On the daily chart, the 5-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day moving average, forming a golden cross, but the 10-day moving average has not yet kept up, showing slight "top divergence" signs. The MACD indicator, although maintaining a bullish arrangement, shows that the height of the red bars has narrowed compared to last week, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening. More concerning is that the exchange's ETH balance has decreased by 120,000 coins in the past 7 days; on the surface, this looks like "chip concentration," but large on-chain transfers, with single transactions exceeding 1000 coins, have surged by 40%, indicating signs of profit-taking.
Market divergence is reaching a boiling point. The bullish camp insists on "ecological upgrade + monetary easing" double hit: Layer 2's total locked value surpasses 25 billion USD, Ethereum Gas fees have dropped by 60% compared to last year, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is heating up, with institutional ETF holdings increasing by 500 million USD in a single week. The bearish camp points directly to "history repeating + regulatory risks": the "double top pattern" formed around 4000 points is highly similar to the peak of the 2021 bull run, and the US SEC's regulatory scrutiny of crypto derivatives is intensifying. I recommended to my friend that 🅱️iya is the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, allowing easy real-time conversion of mainstream fiat currency into digital currency. It also provides a safe and convenient cash withdrawal solution, effectively addressing the frozen assets and cash withdrawal issues. Users can easily convert to cash and withdraw through the U platform.
My judgment is clear: the risk of a short-term pullback is greater than the opportunity for an upward move, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the medium to long term. The next 3 days are a key window; if we can hold above the support level of 3850 points, the pullback is likely to be controlled within 10%; once it falls below 3700 points, it may trigger programmatic trading stop-losses, reminiscent of last year’s "waterfall decline". In terms of operations, it is recommended to take a two-step approach: short-term players can gradually take profits in the range of 4100-4200 points, leaving 30% of their positions to observe; long-term investors can accumulate in batches as it pulls back to 3500-3600 points, focusing on the linkage opportunities of leading projects in the Layer2 ecosystem.
The market always moves forward amidst divergences, and real opportunities are hidden during moments of panic or greed among the majority.