#以太坊市场表现# I just saw that the probability of ETH reaching a new high this year on Polymarket has reached 74%. This data is indeed worth following. However, we need to interpret the data from prediction markets cautiously. Although 74% seems high, there is still a 26% uncertainty.

From the on-chain data, the fundamentals of ETH do show some positive signals. Recently, the activities in DeFi and NFTs have picked up, driving an increase in gas fees and burn rates. At the same time, the amount of staked ETH is also steadily increasing, indicating the confidence of long-term holders.

However, we cannot ignore the impact of the macroeconomic environment. Factors such as the global economic slowdown and inflationary pressures still exist and may affect the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, although the possibility of ETH reaching new highs in the short term is indeed increasing, we must remain vigilant and closely follow the changes in on-chain data and the flow of funds from large holders, as these often provide us with more direct market signals.