🔥 Use the short-term holder cost and standard deviation range of #BTC# to determine if the market is overheated.

Short-term holder cost basis model core

- Short-term holders (STH): Investors who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days and are more sensitive to price fluctuations.
- Cost Basis: The average purchase price of short-term holders.
- Standard Deviation Bands σ: Based on the average purchase price, a fluctuation range of plus or minus one or two times is used to measure whether the price is relatively "calm" or "overheated".

Chart Interpretation

Blue Line (STH Cost Basis): The average buying cost for short-term investors.
Green Line (-1σ range): Short-term holders are generally at a loss, which has historically been a good buying area.
Orange Line (+1σ range): The market begins to heat up, and prices enter a potential resistance zone.
Red line (+2σ range): The market is overheated, and historically, many bull tops have appeared here.

Current price 117,510
The short-term holder cost is 108,569, which is an important support level during the pullback.
If it breaks down, the next strong support is at the -1σ level of 94,868.
$128,914 corresponds to the +1σ level, which is a key resistance level in the upward trend.
If it breaks through, it is expected to hit $145,937 (+2σ), which could be the peak of this cycle (this is based on the current cost; if the short-term holders' cost continues to rise, a higher ceiling cannot be ruled out).