Bitcoin falls back to $115,000, with this week's three major U.S. economic events being the key to breaking through in the crypto market.

The cryptocurrency market saw a general fall at the beginning of the week, with Bitcoin (BTC) retreating to the $115,000 range, and Ethereum (ETH) returning to the $4,300 area. Whether this pullback is a short-term whipsaw or the beginning of a deeper adjustment will depend on significant U.S. economic events this week. Bitcoin prices are highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations, with the FOMC meeting minutes, initial jobless claims data, and the Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting serving as three key catalysts. Market expectations for a rate cut in September are as high as 84.8%, but sticky inflation and internal divisions within the Fed introduce uncertainties. Crypto investors need to be wary of the "hunting market" risk at Jackson Hole and closely monitor the transmission effects of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index on mainstream tokens like BTC/ETH.

The crypto market faced setbacks at the beginning of the week, with BTC/ETH key levels under pressure.

The cryptocurrency market started poorly this week, with widespread falls. Bitcoin ( BTC ) price has retreated to the $115,000 range, while Ethereum ( ETH ) has revisited the area around $4,300. Whether this decline is a short-term whipsaw or the beginning of a deeper adjustment may depend on several key U.S. economic events this week. Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to US economic indicators, which makes this week's data points crucial for whether it can reach new highs.

Three U.S. Economic Events That Could Shake Bitcoin This Week

The following events and data points may affect the performance of traders' and investors' Crypto Assets portfolios this week.

1. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Insights into the Divergence of Rate Cut Paths

The FOMC minutes from the July meeting are undoubtedly the most critical U.S. economic event this week. The minutes are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and policymakers may provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy decisions, which have significant implications for global financial markets, including Crypto Assets. More specifically, the FOMC meeting minutes revealed discussions about potential interest rate changes. Higher interest rates typically boost the dollar and increase borrowing costs. This often reduces investors' interest in high-risk assets like Bitcoin. On the contrary, signals of interest rate cuts or dovish policy may drive up Crypto Assets prices, as investors seek higher returns in speculative assets. At the same time, according to the CME FedWatch tool, rate bettors believe that there is an 84.8% probability that the Fed will lower the interest rate to between 4.00% and 4.25% at the meeting on September 17. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% is 15.2%. This expectation arose after reports showed that inflation in the United States remained high (with a year-on-year rate of 2.7% in July). In addition, after the voting results on September 2 to maintain the interest rates, the FOMC meeting minutes will be crucial in revealing the subsequent views of the policymakers. Therefore, the meeting minutes may reveal the extent of the committee's divergence on the issue of interest rate cuts in the United States. ( 2. Initial Jobless Claims Data: Labor Market Thermometer Another U.S. economic indicator that could potentially impact crypto assets this week is the initial jobless claims, as labor market data is gradually becoming a key macro factor for Bitcoin. This data is released every Thursday and shows the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States. In the week ending August 9, the reported number of initial jobless claims was 224,000, a slight decrease from 226,000 in the week ending August 2. Notably, this reading is below economists' expectations (which were as high as 229,000). Economists surveyed by MarketWatch indicated that the number of initial jobless claims last week may have reached 224,000, unchanged from the previous week. At the same time, analysts pointed out that initial jobless claims have been stabilizing over the past few weeks. Stable but slightly rising unemployment claims data indicates that the labor market is cooling, which may strengthen bets on Fed rate cuts, thereby supporting the upward momentum of Bitcoin. ) 3. Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting: Powell's Speech Sets the Tone Another highlight of this week's US economic events is the Jackson Hole Symposium scheduled for August 22 (Friday). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver the keynote speech at 10 AM Eastern Time on that day. The well-known account CryptoData on platform X wrote: "The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held from August 21 to 23 (gathering dozens of Central Bank presidents, policymakers, scholars, and economists from around the world). Jerome Powell will speak here at 10 AM Eastern Time on August 22. This will provide a good outlook for our interest rate cut next month." The Jackson Hole Symposium is known for creating "seek and destroy trading environments," and the price fluctuations it triggers often catch traders off guard. Powell's speech carries significant weight, as past Jackson Hole speeches have reshaped market expectations for interest rates and growth. Its ripple effects may impact the stock market, bond market, and Crypto Assets market.

Market Reaction: BTC Under Pressure Before the Event

Before these US economic events, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,233, having fallen nearly 3% in the past 24 hours.

Conclusion

The cryptocurrency market stands at a key crossroads this week, with three major U.S. economic events set to dominate the short-term direction. The internal divisions revealed in the FOMC minutes, the resilience of the labor market reflected in unemployment data, and the policy signals released by Powell at Jackson Hole will collectively shape the September rate cut expectations, which will then be transmitted to crypto assets through the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Whether Bitcoin can hold the key support at 115,000 and regain upward momentum, and whether Ethereum will be constrained by the 4,300 resistance, all hinge on the macroeconomic winds. Crypto investors need to prepare for increased volatility, utilizing hedging tools like options to manage risk, while also focusing on the rotation opportunities of altcoins during the fluctuations of mainstream tokens, seizing the structural trading windows brought about by the disparity in policy expectations.