The cyclical patterns of Bitcoin: Halving bull run and big dump test

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has attracted attention for its dramatic price volatility and unique cyclical patterns. Historically, Bitcoin's Halving event, which occurs every 4 years (i.e., the mining reward is halved), has always been closely linked to subsequent big dump bull runs. However, it has also experienced multiple falls of over 50%, highlighting the coexistence of high risks and high potential rewards.
Halving and Bull Run: A Continuously Verified Pattern
The Bitcoin Halving reduces the rate of new coin production, historically triggering expectations of supply contraction, thereby driving prices up. This mechanism has been validated through three consecutive market cycles:
After the first Halving in November 2012, Bitcoin soared from $10 to $1,000 in 2013, an increase of 100 times;
After the second Halving in July 2016, the 2017 bull run pushed its price from $400 to $20,000, setting a historical high at that time.
After the third Halving in May 2020, the 2021 bull run pushed Bitcoin from $9,000 to $69,000.
On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth Halving, with the price around $63,914 on that day. The market is closely monitoring its subsequent trend, trying to verify whether this pattern will repeat itself.
Big dump history: risk has never been far away
However, the growth journey of Bitcoin is also full of thorns, with at least six big dump events warning investors of its fragility:
In June 2011, Bitcoin plummeted from $32 to $0.01, a fall of 99%, primarily due to a hacker attack on the Mt. Gox exchange, exposing the immaturity of the early market;
2013-2014 consecutive crashes: first due to the Chinese central bank issuing a risk warning, the price fell from 1166 USD to 170 USD (a drop of 85%); then 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen from Mt. Gox, and the price fell another 58%;
In the bear market of 2018, Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to $3,122, a decline of 84%. The main reasons were the burst of the ICO bubble and tightening global regulations.
On March 2020, during the "Black Thursday," the COVID-19 pandemic triggered global panic, and Bitcoin fell from $9,000 to $3,850 within 24 hours, a decline of over 50%;
Two pullbacks in 2021: China's ban on mining caused the price to fall from 64,000 to 30,000; expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led it to drop from 40,000 to 29,000.
In 2022, the LUNA collapse triggered a chain reaction, compounded by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, causing Bitcoin to fall from $48,000 to $16,300, a drop of 66%;
The most recent big dump occurred in February 2025, due to geopolitical tensions and a crash in tech stocks, with Bitcoin falling 6.83% to $91,130 in a single day, and mainstream coins like Ethereum dropping over 20%.
Summary of the law: The duality of opportunity and risk
The Bitcoin market exhibits significant cyclicality: Halving events stimulate bull runs, but each bull run is often accompanied by a deep correction of over 80%, and bear market cycles typically last 1-2 years. The factors triggering big dumps are diverse, including regulatory policies (such as the Chinese ban), security incidents (such as exchange hacks), macroeconomic crises (such as interest rate hikes, pandemics), and industry-specific risks (such as algorithmic stablecoin failures).
For investors, history provides a reference but is not a guarantee of future performance. The trend of Bitcoin after its fourth Halving is still influenced by multiple factors such as the macro environment, regulatory progress, and technological innovation. Understanding its high volatility nature and reasonably allocating assets is the rational way to cope with this high-risk, high-return market. #打榜优质内容#