Pi Network: The Rise and Controversy of a New Crypto Assets Project

Pi Network is a new digital encryption coin project based on a mobile device platform. Unlike traditional Bitcoin mining, which requires a large amount of electricity and specialized equipment, Pi Network allows users to "mine" through a mobile app, significantly lowering the technical and cost barriers, enabling more ordinary users to participate in the Crypto Assets ecosystem.

However, this seemingly ordinary "coin circle" project is actually quite controversial. Pi Network was founded in 2019, but has long failed to launch its mainnet, and mobile mining is still in a "mining air" state. Its token acquisition mechanism relies more on recommending new users to register to increase mining shares, rather than using blockchain consensus mechanisms like PoW or PoS. This model is closer to a pyramid scheme.

After six years of waiting, Pi Network has finally announced the launch of its mainnet and the listing of its tokens for trading on multiple exchanges. This move has sparked widespread discussion on the valuation of Pi coin.

Pi coin Supply Analysis

The Pi Network has not officially announced the final total supply limit of Pi coin, but based on community and white paper information, it is widely believed that the maximum supply of Pi coin is about 100 billion coins. This means that if each Pi coin is worth 1 dollar, the fully diluted market capitalization would reach 100 billion dollars.

As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the closed period of the mainnet and has not fully opened for trading, so the actual circulating supply is limited. Blockchain browser data shows:

• August 2023: Approximately 1.97 billion Pi migrated to the mainnet (of which 1.29 billion are locked by users)
• September 2024: The cumulative migration supply of the mainnet increased to approximately 4.07 billion coins (with 1.35 billion coins locked), a 106.6% increase in supply over more than a year.
• January 2025: The mainnet has accumulated a migration of 5.56 billion coins, of which approximately 660 million are still locked. In just three months, the supply has increased by 36.6%.

The Pi white paper mentioned: When the mainnet is opened, users may have mined 10-20 billion PI. This means that the actual circulating supply in the early stages may only account for a small portion of the total, with most of the Pi coins being gradually produced through mining over time. This also indicates that the supply is controlled in the short term, but there is potential inflationary pressure in the long term.

Market Demand and User Data

Since the launch of the mobile mining application by Pi Network in 2019, it claims to have attracted tens of millions of users worldwide. According to the Pi team, there are over 60 million registered users globally. However, the number of real users who have completed KYC verification is only a portion of this. In 2023, Pi officials stated that about 12 million users passed the KYC verification. Even by early 2025, the on-chain data shows that the total number of mainnet wallets is only about 9.11 million, accounting for only 15% of the claimed users.

This indicates that although the number of registered users is large, the proportion of truly active users who have completed the migration on-chain is limited.

Daily active usage can also reflect actual demand. According to data from a third-party blockchain explorer, the average number of daily active wallets on the Pi mainnet is around 20,000, with a peak of approximately 42,000 in January 2025. Compared to the tens of millions of users claimed by Pi Network, this level of activity is relatively low.

Pi Coin Valuation Model and Possible Price Range

Based on the above information, we can attempt to establish several valuation models for Pi coin to estimate its price range. Common valuation approaches for Crypto Assets include "market capitalization" and "over-the-counter trading price".

Market Cap Estimation

Assuming the total supply of tokens is 100 billion pieces, with an estimated circulation of 10 billion in this case:

1. Benchmarking Dogecoin: If Pi can replicate DOGE's success, based on DOGE's current market cap of $40 billion, the value of Pi tokens could reach $4.

2. Market Cap Rank 50: The current market cap of the coin ranked 50th is approximately 2.7 billion USD. If Pi can open and enter the top 50 in market cap, the token price will be about 0.27 USD.

3. Market Capitalization Rank 100: The current market capitalization of the coin ranked 100 is approximately 920 million USD. If Pi can enter the top 100 by market capitalization at the opening, the value of the Pi token could reach 0.092 USD.

Off-exchange trading price reference

Over-the-counter (OTC) trading has been the main way for Pi coin enthusiasts to exchange. Price discrepancies have appeared in different regions:

• Early rumors in mainland China and some Southeast Asian regions suggest that the private acquisition price is around several yuan.
• In some foreign communities, there are individuals willing to privately trade small amounts of Pi at a valuation of 5-10 dollars, but such transactions carry high risks and are limited in quantity.
• Some merchants and users privately accept Pi coin in exchange for goods or services, converting each Pi to a value between 1 to 3 dollars, but this is more out of support for the Pi community.

Factors Affecting the Market Valuation of Pi coin

The market valuation of Pi coin will mainly depend on two factors: the supply and demand game and confidence consensus.

1. Supply Perspective: The initially limited circulation may drive up the price of Pi coin, but in the long term, the total supply of 100 billion coins is a significant concern. If the application ecosystem cannot expand in tandem to absorb this supply, the price will face downward pressure.

2. Demand Perspective: Hundreds of thousands, even millions of active coin holders will be the cornerstone of Pi coin's value. After the exchange goes live, the behavior of this group of users will directly influence the market capitalization trend.

3. Market Positioning: If Pi Network can prove that it relies not only on pyramid-style growth but also truly integrates blockchain technology and applications, the market may give it a higher valuation. Otherwise, Pi coin may face the risk of value depreciation.

The valuation of Pi coin is uncertain, and short-term fluctuations may be drastic. It is recommended to pay attention to the following indicators to assess the valuation trend of Pi coin:

• Trading volume and turnover rate in the first week of launch
• Mainnet unlocking progress
• Pi ecosystem application implementation status
• Overall Crypto Assets Market Trends

It is worth noting that the community cohesion of Pi Network is its greatest characteristic. The project has built an upper and lower structure through an invitation mechanism, incentivizing users to participate continuously. After six years of development, most community members have become staunch believers, even stating that they will not sell after the mainnet launch, but rather plan to purchase more Pi coins.

This strong community loyalty, combined with a low initial circulation, may trigger significant volatility in the early stages of the token's launch. However, whether Pi Network can maintain its market value and worth in the long term still needs to be observed through its actual application and market acceptance.