Options Data Suggests Mixed Signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices - Crypto Economy

TL;DR

• Over $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, creating the potential for significant market moves.
• Bitcoin’s max pain is at $117,000 with a put-call ratio signaling bullish positioning, while Ethereum’s max pain at $4,000 shows a slight tilt toward puts.
• Traders are watching these expiries closely as record volumes and concentrated open interest could influence short-term price movements.

The crypto derivatives market is navigating a critical moment as more than $6 billion in options for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) expire today. For Bitcoin, the max pain strike stands at $117,000, slightly below the current trading price of $118,995. The put-call ratio of 0.90 suggests traders favor calls, reflecting ongoing bullish sentiment despite Bitcoin trading above its theoretical pain point. Notional value of BTC options sits at $4.78 billion, with open interest of 40,185 contracts, highlighting concentrated positions and strong institutional engagement.

Ethereum’s expiry data paints a different picture. With a max pain level of $4,000 compared to a current price of $4,629, the put-call ratio of 1.02 signals a slight dominance of puts. The total notional value of expiring ETH options is $1.33 billion, with 287,946 contracts open. Analysts note that this structure could point to traders hedging against a moderate pullback, while long-term bullish momentum remains intact, especially as Ethereum adoption continues to expand globally and more decentralized finance applications gain traction.


Record Trading Volume Supports Positive Momentum

Deribit reports a record $10.9 billion in options trading volume today, surpassing the $10 billion mark for the first time. Analysts at Greeks.live interpret this as a sign of strong market confidence and continued institutional interest. Many market makers are reportedly adjusting asks amid high bid pressure, suggesting accumulation by large players. Some traders even executed large put sales near current highs, demonstrating tactical positioning to capitalize on potential short-term retracements, market inefficiencies, and temporary volatility opportunities.

Max Pain Levels Could Guide Short-Term Moves

Today’s options expiries are poised to create temporary price gravitation toward max pain levels, with Bitcoin potentially testing $117,000 and Ethereum $4,000 in the coming hours. While some observers anticipate minor corrections, the broader pro-crypto sentiment remains robust, supported by strong fundamentals, increasing adoption, and sustained investor interest. Traders will likely monitor open interest, volume, and volatility metrics closely, as these indicators could signal future directional bias for both BTC and ETH throughout the next week and provide opportunities for strategic positioning.